Daily Cryptos News – April 13, 2025

Cryptocurrency Market – Analysis for April 13, 2025

📰 Summary of the main news of the day

• A lull in the US-China trade war : Donald Trump announced a 90-day tariff truce for most countries (except China, which is still hit by increased tariffs). This partial rollback has reassured traditional markets and given investors some breathing space, even though US-China trade tensions remain high.

• A Bitcoin as a national reserve ? In Sweden, a member of parliament has tabled a bold proposal: creating a national Bitcoin reserve. The initiative reflects growing institutional interest in BTC as a strategic asset, as some countries consider cryptocurrencies as a hedge against financial instability.

• Cybersecurity and crypto : North Korea has reportedly deployed an artificial intelligence-powered hacking unit to target Western systems, including crypto platforms. This information heightens the focus on security in the ecosystem, as hacker attacks (often linked to North Korea) have already cost DeFi projects billions in recent years.

• Commodity Volatility : The price of physical gold is reaching historic highs (~$3,230 per ounce, up +36% year-on-year). This surge in gold illustrates the search for traditional safe havens in the face of economic uncertainty. Crypto investors see this as a mixed signal: on the one hand, macroeconomic fears that benefit gold may also support Bitcoin on the "digital gold" theme; on the other, strong gold may divert some capital away from digital assets.

📊 Detailed analysis of today's crypto market

Today, the crypto market is showing a slight post-crash recovery. Bitcoin is trading around $85,000 at the end of the day, continuing its climb from the low of ~$78,000 reached earlier in the week. This stabilization of BTC above $80k is an encouraging sign 😌: the market is gradually digesting the recent shock and seems to be regaining confidence. The overall trend, however, remains cautious, with the watchword being consolidation after the storm.

On a technical level, several indicators reflect this fragile but real rebound:

• Momentum : The RSI (Relative Strength Index) is moving back from oversold areas and is now flirting with the neutral-bullish zone. On a 4-hour horizon, the RSI is even approaching the overbought level, a sign that the rebound of the last few days has been vigorous. At the same time, the daily MACD is showing the beginning of a positive inflection 📈 – the histogram is contracting towards zero and the MACD curves could make a bullish crossover shortly if the current momentum continues. These elements indicate that selling pressure is running out of steam: the bears are losing ground, without the bulls having yet fully taken control.

• Key Levels : From a chartist perspective, Bitcoin has managed to move back above its 50-day moving average, a critical first step in halting the bear market cycle. The next major hurdle is around $87,000, at the confluence of the 200-day moving average and a downtrend line in place since the January peak. This technical level is currently acting as a barrier: until it is clearly breached, the market will remain in a fragile recovery dynamic. As support, the $80,000 area (a psychological threshold) has proven its importance by halting the recent decline; in the event of a pullback, this level will be closely monitored, with lower support around $75,000 in the event of renewed stress.

• Volumes and Volatility : 24-hour trading volumes are hovering around $75 billion, down from the panic peak a few days ago. This is typical for a Sunday, but it also signals a return to relative calm. Intraday volatility is easing (BTC hovering in a narrow $83k-$86k range today), indicating a consolidation phase. In derivatives markets, we are seeing a major cleanup: the massive liquidations of the crash purged many overleveraged positions. Today, futures contract liquidations have fallen back to moderate levels (only a few tens of millions of dollars), evidence that overall leverage has significantly decreased. Open interest (open positions) remains below recent highs, reflecting a more measured attitude from traders after the storm.

• Market Sentiment : Sentiment indicators remain in fear. The crypto market's Fear & Greed index stands at 32/100 (fear zone 😰), reflecting the continued prevailing caution among investors. Nevertheless, there is a hint of optimism compared to previous days (when the index was even lower). Moreover, a notable shift is emerging in the market composition: Bitcoin dominance has climbed to ~63%, its highest level in several years, while Ethereum and altcoins are suffering. This rotation into BTC (and to a lesser extent into stablecoins) indicates that capital is seeking refuge in the most established crypto asset. Ethereum in particular is struggling to rebound: with a price around $1,580, ETH is down nearly 5% over 24 hours and -51% since the beginning of the year. Its market share (only 7% of total capitalization) is at its lowest, reflecting a temporary shift away from ETH in favor of Bitcoin. Many altcoins are therefore lagging behind, a sign that the market has not yet fully regained its appetite for risk—a Bitcoin-led rally typical of the initial phases of recovery after a crash.

In summary , the market today is showing signs of recovery 🌱: Bitcoin is consolidating its rally above key levels, panic is slowly subsiding, and technical indicators are improving. However, caution remains. The overall medium-term structure has not yet reversed (major resistances are facing), and the hesitant sentiment suggests that investors are waiting for new catalysts before massively returning to risky assets.

🚀 Top & Flop cryptos (24h)

Despite the still-uncertain climate, some cryptocurrencies have stood out with impressive performances over the past 24 hours, while others have suffered notable setbacks. Here are today's Top 3 and Flop 3:

Top 3 performances 📈

1. Flare (FLR): +23% over 24 hours. The Flare token is soaring today, benefiting from renewed optimism surrounding the XRP ecosystem. Flare, which was airdropped to XRP holders, could benefit from the recent regulatory clarification surrounding Ripple. The final resolution of the Ripple vs. SEC dispute (announced this weekend) seems to be reviving interest in projects revolving around XRP. Technically, FLR is rebounding strongly after a long period of stagnation, a sign that new liquidity is possibly flowing into this still highly speculative token.

2. Helium (HNT): +17% over 24 hours. The Helium project's token (decentralized IoT network) continues its rally that began at the end of the week. Helium is benefiting from excellent regulatory news: the US SEC has dropped its lawsuit against the Helium Foundation, removing the threat of a "security" classification. This legal victory has served as a bullish catalyst 📡 for HNT, which is rebounding strongly after hitting a low. Investors are welcoming this lifting of uncertainty and the project is regaining some confidence, hence today's price explosion. Helium remains well below its highs, but this surge offers a welcome breath of fresh air.

3. XDC Network (XDC): +6% over 24 hours. Less spectacular than the previous two, XDC (finance/trade-oriented blockchain) nevertheless achieved solid growth in a hesitant market. No specific major news appears to explain this moderate gain, other than a technical rebound and possibly some bargain buying by certain players after the recent correction. XDC is among the mid-cap altcoins that are holding up best in this context, which may signal discreet accumulation by investors anticipating a recovery in the sector.

(Honorable mention: Also in the top 10, we note Solana (SOL), which recovered ~+3% on the day, retaking the $100 mark after its early-week plunge. Solana is benefiting from buying in its psychological support zone, although the road to recovery is still long for this former market darling.)

Flop 3 of the performances 📉

1. EOS (EOS): -11% over 24 hours. The formerly major blockchain EOS is having a rough day, with a double-digit drop that leaves it at the bottom of the top 100. No one-off event justifies this sharp drop; rather, it is the continuation of an underlying negative trend. Lacking visible adoption and development, EOS is suffering from growing disinterest and seeing its market capitalization fall below the symbolic billion-dollar mark. Investors seem to be turning away from this once-promising project, and the recent crash has amplified the damage. The market rebound is not benefiting EOS, which is worrying – the token is hitting yearly lows while the competition is eclipsing it.

2. Tezos (XTZ): -7% over 24 hours. Another historic project in difficulty, Tezos, is recording another sharp decline. XTZ is falling back to around $0.50, levels not seen since 2020. The selling momentum is explained by a lack of catalysts: despite regular technical upgrades, Tezos is struggling to attract attention compared to more popular ecosystems (Ethereum, L2, new L1). The community seems to be growing impatient, and the market is punishing this lack of momentum. Today's underperformance is part of a gradual decline in XTZ since the beginning of the year, and the recent panic has only accelerated the fall. An electroshock (major partnership or differentiating innovation) will be needed to reverse the trend, otherwise confidence could be permanently eroded.

3. PancakeSwap (CAKE): -5.5% over 24 hours. Among DeFi tokens, PancakeSwap is one of the hardest hit today. CAKE is down more than 5% as the BSC (Binance Smart Chain) goes through a difficult period. CAKE's decline reflects the liquidity drain from high-yield DeFi protocols in this high-risk climate. After the crash, many yield farmers have scaled back, which is weighing on PancakeSwap's governance token. In addition, the recent announcement that Binance will delist several small tokens may have cast a chill on the BSC ecosystem in general, as a knock-on effect. CAKE, already in decline for months, is seeing its situation worsen and is flirting with its cycle lows. The platform maintains a high volume of usage, but investors are waiting for improvements (tokenomics, use cases) to return, which explains the persistent selling pressure.

(Note: Other notable altcoins down include Aave (AAVE) and Stacks (STX), down around -5%. Generally, DeFi projects and legacy layer1 tokens are suffering the most today, following the weekend purge.)

🔮 1-day, 1-week, and 1-month outlook

After this transitional day, what is the outlook for the crypto market? Our short-, medium-, and medium-to-long-term scenarios combine current technical analysis and expected catalysts. Here's what we can expect:

1 day (short term – horizon April 14)

By tomorrow, the preferred scenario is for consolidation to continue with a moderate bullish bias. Bitcoin managed to stay above $83k all weekend; if traditional markets open in the green on Monday, BTC could attempt to break through the $86-87k resistance again in the coming hours. A confirmed breakout beyond $87k 🚀 would trigger a technical buy signal, possibly enough to attract a new bullish flow towards the $90k zone. However, caution remains advised in the very short term as post-crash volatility can resurface without warning. A rejection below $87k could just as easily send BTC back into its current range. The immediate support to watch for tomorrow will be $83k: below that, a return to $80k would be possible quickly.

In short, for the day of April 14, two scenarios are emerging: bullish scenario 👉 continuation of the technical rebound with BTC targeting $88-90k (and Ethereum hoping to regain $1,600) if the macro climate remains calm; bearish scenario 👉 stagnation below the resistance followed by a small pullback towards $80k if profit-taking occurs or if unexpected bad news falls. In the immediate future, the market is showing encouraging signs of stabilization, which suggests that tonight and tomorrow should continue in the continuity of this relatively calm weekend.

In 1 week (medium term – 7-day horizon)

Over the coming week, the question will be whether the crypto market can turn the relief rally into a genuine bullish recovery. Several factors will be worth watching:

• Testing major resistances : Between $87k and $90k is a pivotal area for Bitcoin. If buyers manage to push BTC above $90k in the coming days, this would largely invalidate the recent bearish structure. We would then enter a new regime, possibly that of a return to a fundamental uptrend 😃. In this optimistic scenario, the total market capitalization could once again approach $3 trillion, and the altseason that everyone is waiting for could finally manifest itself (rotation of capital from BTC to quality altcoins). On the other hand, if Bitcoin stumbles below $87-88k for too long this week, confidence could waver again. A market unable to regain higher ground after a crash often indicates persistent fragility. A negative scenario would be to see BTC fall back towards its support levels ($80k, or even $75k) in the event of renewed risk aversion. For example, further escalations in the trade war (China's strong response to US tariffs?) or disappointing economic indicators could dampen general sentiment and trigger a correction.

• Altcoins & Rotation : This week will be crucial for Ethereum and the major altcoins. Will they catch up? Currently, the very high BTC dominance suggests a wait-and-see attitude for alts. If the climate improves, we could see a technical rebound in ETH towards $1,700 and above, and surges in massively oversold tokens (e.g., NEAR, Lido, Tezos, etc., which have fallen by ~60-70% this year). The market will particularly scrutinize developments on the Ethereum side (news on staking or rollups could give hope) and new narratives (e.g., IA or L2 tokens that are more resilient could lead the way). At the same time, watch out for specific events: several important token unlocks will take place this week. On April 15, $127 million in STRK (StarkNet) will be unlocked (~4% of cap) – an influx that could add selling pressure to this already weakened L2 token. More importantly, on April 18, a massive 20% unlock of the TRUMP meme-coin supply (~$338 million) is planned, which is likely to create volatility (the TRUMP token is plummeting 30% this month in anticipation). On April 19, the Polyhedra project (ZKJ token) will release 25% of its cap. These events could have a one-off effect on market sentiment – if one of these unlocks causes a severe dump, the shockwave could spread to the rest of the altcoins. Conversely, if these transitions go smoothly, it will reinforce the idea that the worst is behind us.

• Macro & Regulation in the Background : On the macroeconomic front, this week brings slightly less data than the previous one, but investors will remain attentive to inflation in Europe (final figures for March in some countries) and possible statements from central bankers. In the United States, even if the next major Fed meeting is not until May, any hint of possible monetary easing could serve as a positive catalyst for Bitcoin (a rare asset appreciated in a context of abundant liquidity). Furthermore, the regulatory climate seems to be gradually thawing across the Atlantic: the peace between Ripple and the SEC, the dialogue between the new SEC chairman and crypto players (OpenSea, exchanges, etc.) – these favorable signals could strengthen in the coming days and support the market recovery. However, be wary: a reversal of the situation (for example, new regulatory action against a large exchange) remains possible and would then constitute an immediate cold shower.

7-day summary : a slight advantage to the bullish scenario 🌤️ for this week, subject to breaking through nearby technical resistance. The market has an opportunity to get back on track if it capitalizes on the current rebound. We will be monitoring $88-90k BTC as a trigger for a new upward leg, and $80k as critical support, the breach of which would negate this positive outlook. This post-crash week promises to be crucial in restoring confidence.

In 1 month (medium-long term – horizon mid-May 2025)

Within a month, the crypto market could look very different, given the potential for extremes after a crash. Three weeks is a long time in crypto, and several medium- to long-term scenarios are emerging:

• Sustainable bullish scenario : If the buying trend takes over and macro/regulatory news remains favorable, Bitcoin could enter a new phase of sustained appreciation. Technically, once the $90k mark is crossed, the road would be open to the psychological zone of $100,000 🤩. Some experts even suggest the possibility of seeing BTC exceed 100k as early as May, which would mark a historic turning point (potential new absolute highs in sight). In this optimistic scenario, Ethereum would also recover (target: return to around $2,000 if the market becomes frankly bullish), and quality altcoins would undoubtedly outperform Bitcoin over the period (return of a form of altseason with DeFi, L2 and AI tokens as leaders). The one-month technical levels for BTC would then be: major resistance around $94-95k (former relative highs), then $100k. Beyond that, the market would enter price discovery with a likely exponential surge in enthusiasm. This scenario will require concrete catalysts: examples 🔑: rapidly declining inflation data (which would lead to anticipation of a Fed rate cut), geopolitical developments (China-US trade agreement? End of major conflicts?), or the entry of new large institutional players into the crypto market taking advantage of the dip (funds, large companies announcing BTC purchases, etc.). Looking ahead to May, a key event will be the Fed meeting on May 6-7: if the Fed surprises with a rate cut or a very accommodative speech, this could be the spark for a prolonged rally in crypto.

• Intermediate scenario (prolonged consolidation): The market could also choose the path of patience. After the recent shock, it is not impossible that Bitcoin will oscillate for several weeks in a relatively broad consolidation range, for example between ~$75k and ~$90k. This would be a seemingly boring market scenario, but beneficial for building a solid base before a subsequent recovery. Consolidation does not mean inactivity: during this phase, we could see sector rotations (first metaverse tokens pumping, then infrastructure tokens, etc.), without a clear overall trend. Traders would take advantage of this to practice range trading (buying low in the range, selling high in the range), while long-term investors would gradually accumulate positions in anticipation of the next cycle. Such a scenario would see sentiment gradually improve (Fear & Greed index rising towards neutral 50), without sudden euphoria. In terms of levels, Bitcoin could visit the $80k zone several times without breaking it, while failing to rise above $90k again as long as the overall market (stocks, etc.) remains uncertain. This would ultimately be a blessing in disguise: a period of calm during which the market fully digests past excesses (some altcoin bubbles burst, leverage purged, weak projects ousted). Many eyes would turn to June-July (often a more favorable period) for a possible real recovery – but that goes beyond our one-month horizon.

• Extended bearish scenario : Obviously, we cannot rule out a more severe backlash 😞. If negative shocks were to occur (for example: sudden escalation of the trade war, global banking crisis rebound, unexpected aggressive regulation, or even a major hack like Mt.Gox 2.0), Bitcoin could break its supports and plunge back to lower levels. A fall below $75k would open the door to a return to $70k and then $65k, completely erasing the bull run of late 2024. This would probably correspond to a deteriorating macro context (e.g. global recession leading to a sell-off of all risky assets). For now, this dark scenario is not the most likely according to current indicators, but it remains in the background as long as BTC has not resumed its long-term bullish trajectory. Traders will therefore keep a mental stop loss on the $75k zone: below that, the bias would become frankly bearish again over several weeks.

Key technical levels and events to watch in the coming month:

• BTC Major Supports : ~$80,000 (short term), then $75,000 and $70,000 in extensions if the market falters.

• BTC major resistances : $87,000 (200-day SMA), $90,000 (psychological threshold and trend pivot), $94-95,000 (possible congestion zone), and of course $100,000 (symbolic target).

• Macro events : Fed meeting on May 6-7 (potentially game-changing monetary policy decision), April inflation indicators (released in late April/early May) in the US and Europe, any announcements regarding interest rates or financial stability.

• Crypto events : Consensus 2025 Conference in mid-May in Toronto – many project announcements could be made there; continued regulations in Europe (implementation of MiCA) and potential easing in the USA with the new SEC; and why not the surprise arrival of an approved Bitcoin spot ETF (we can dream, but such news would instantly propel the market upwards).

In conclusion , the cryptocurrency market as of April 13, 2025, is at a crossroads. The worst of the shock seems to be over, and tangible signs of recovery are emerging, led by a resilient Bitcoin 💪. However, the road to redemption remains fraught with pitfalls, and there is no guarantee of a straight recovery. The next few days will serve as a test of the strength of this rebound. Let's remain attentive to key technical levels and macroeconomic news. A wise investor will navigate this environment by remaining agile and informed, ready to seize recovery opportunities while keeping an eye on risks. The key word for the moment: measured caution, cautious optimism. Crypto has not said its last word for 2025, and each day brings its share of surprises—sometimes trying, sometimes exhilarating. 🚀👏

Have a good week on the markets, and see you tomorrow for the next daily update!